According to author Ken Follith, flashpoint is a place where a conflict would involve the major powers. Where a spark can ignite a major fire engulfing the world. In the current geo political situation, there is no shortage of possibilities: Ukraine, the Strait of Hormuz, Taiwan, various locations in the South China Sea, and more. The world leaders successfully negotiated a number of minor crises in the past but they remain a threat to long term stability and the world peace. We are discussing one such flash point today – Taiwan.

Taiwan’s history

Taiwan is a small island around 160 kms from the mainland China. It is approximately 395 km long (north-south) and 145 km across at its widest point. Taipeiis the seat of government of the Republic of China (ROC; Nationalist China). In addition to the main island, the ROC government has jurisdiction over 22 islands in the Taiwan group and 64 islands to the west in the P’eng-hu (Pescadores) archipelago.

It has had a chequered history and has been occupied by various countries including Dutch, Chinese and Japanese.Prior to the 1600s, Taiwan was self-governing, although there was no central ruling authority. It was a colony of the Netherlands for about 40 years in the 17th century. Later China gained control and ruled Taiwan for two centuries. Japan acquired Taiwan in 1895 following the first Sino-Japanese War, and it became a colony.Taiwan was returned to Nationalist Chinese control in 1945 following Japan’s defeat in World War II. It has China, Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Vietnam as its neighbors.

Conflict between China and Taiwan

The roots of the conflict between mainland China and Taiwan date back to the late 1920s, when Chinese Communistslaunched a civil war against the Nationalists, who defended the government of the Republic of China (ROC).  During the Japanese occupation of China, from 1937 to 1945, the two sides formed an uneasy alliance. After the end of World War II, the Chinese Civil War resumed between the Chinese Nationalists (Kuomintang), led by Chiang Kai-shek, and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), led by CCP Chairman Mao Zedong. A series of Chinese Communist offensives led to the capture of its capital Nanjing on 23 April 1949 and the subsequent defeat of the Nationalist army on the mainland. The Communists founded the People’s Republic of China.

The Nationalist government and armies fled to Taiwan.Some 2 million people, consisting mainly of soldiers, members of the ruling Kuomintang and intellectual and business elites, were evacuated from mainland China to Taiwan, adding to the earlier population of approximately six million. In addition, the ROC government took to Taipei many national treasures and much of China’s gold reserves and foreign currency reserves.

The Nationalists, led by General Chiang Kai-shek, refused to accept defeat and established the ROC government in the “temporary” capital of Taipei.  Despite controlling just, a small, offshore territory, Chiang declared that the ROC was the legitimate government of all China, including the mainland. He was supported by the western countries who did not want the spread of communism and till 1971 mainland China was not recognized as a country.

Taiwan, as the Republic of China, represented China in the United Nations until 1971.On 25 Oct,1971 the People’s Republic of China took the China seat. Subsequently, Chiang’s government quickly lost its international standing.Taiwan had signed a defence treaty with the United States in 1954, which was terminated after the United States established formal diplomatic ties with Beijing in 1979. It was replaced with the Taiwan Relations Act passed that year by the U.S. Congress, which pledged the sale of U.S. weapons to Taiwan and the maintenance of U.S. forces in the region.

Taiwan has only one adversary, China, and its military strategy has been geared toward defending the island in the event of a Chinese attack until U.S. forces can arrive. Questions have been raised about the United States’ resolve to protect Taiwan, given the considerable U.S. economic and financial ties with China.

This fragile – though long-standing – peace has been maintained for the past seven decades. However, Beijing has warned the ROC that it will invade militarily should the nationalists declare Taiwan an independent state. Any diplomatic misstep could threaten their governments’ relations.Some analysts of China and the East Asian region argue that the PRC, for reasons of historical identity and national pride, wants China to be a unified country, including the island of Taiwan.  They also note that China would be strategically challenged should Taiwan fall into less manageable hands, say, by the election of a separatist party.

Economic Comparison China and Taiwan

Mainland China is home to 1.2 billion people whereas Taiwan is home to only 23 million people. China has a GDP per capita of $18,200 as of 2018, while in Taiwan, the GDP per capita is $50,500 as of 2017. Taiwan per capita GDP is 2.5 times China and the cost of living is substantially higher. The official language is Mandarin Chinese since 1945, which is same as in China. Nearly 84% people belong to Taiwan while Around 14% people are those Chinese who came during 1949. As per Gini Index, Taiwan also has a much lower level of wealth inequality as compared to China

Key Events of Taiwan

  1. Taiwan is ruled by Japanfrom 1895 under Treaty of Shimonoseki by which the Chinese King Qing ceded Taiwan to Japan.
  2. In 1911-1912 Chinese revolutionaries overthrow the Qing Empire and establish theRepublic of China (ROC). Sun Yat-Sen the leader of ROC takes oath on of 1st January, 1912 at 11 PM in Nanking.
  3. Japan attacks China in 1937 and the fight was primarily between the ROC and the Empire of Japan. Japan conceded defeat on 15 Aug 1945at the end of World War II.
  4. As agreed with USA and England, ROC government started controlling Taiwan after Japan’s surrender.
  5. The Chinese Civil War resumed between the ROC led by Chiang Kai-shek, and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), led by  Chairman Mao Zedong. The CCP captured the capital Nanjing on 23 April 1949 and the Nationalist army is defeated on the mainland. The Communists founded the People’s Republic of China.
  6. The Nationalist government and armies fled to Taiwan. Some 2 million people, consisting mainly of soldiers, members of the ruling Kuomintang and intellectual and business elites, were evacuated from mainland China to Taiwan at that time, adding to the earlier population of approximately six million. The ROC government also took to Taipei many national treasures and much of China’s gold reserves and foreign currency reserves.
  7. The ROC officially moved the central government to Taipei on 1 March 1950 at 10:00AMat Taipei.
  8. CCP attacked Hainan Island on 10 Apr 1950 and got absolute control of the island on 23 Apr 1950.
  9. Taiwan had political system that was democratic in form but martial law was imposed from 1949 to 1970 and people in Taiwan were brutally suppressed by ROC till 1970.
  10. Taiwan represented China in the United Nations until 1971, when the People’s Republic of China took the China seat. Subsequently, Chiang’s government quickly lost its international standing.
  11. Taiwan’s economic growth beginning in the mid-1960s was so spectacular that it acquired the appellation “economic miracle. In the 1990s Taiwan’s economy slowed, but its growth remained good. In 2001 Taiwan experienced a recession from which it recovered only slowly.
  12. Democratization in Taiwan was introduced in local politics first and favored the Taiwanese, especially the Fukien Taiwanese. By the 1980s, Taiwan had made significant progress establishing a working democracy.
  13. In the 1980s Taiwan moved to capital-intensive and knowledge-based industries. A high rate of savings, rising labour productivity, privatization, astute government planning, considerable foreign investment, and trade all propelled Taiwan’s rapid economic expansion. By the mid-1980s Taiwan had become one of the world’s largest producers of computers and computer peripherals.
  14. Chiang’s son, Chiang Ching-kuo, began the process of democratization, which eventually led to the 2000 election of the island’s first non-KMT president, Chen Shui-bian.
  15. Taiwan is said to be one of the most religiously tolerant places in the world.Certainly, few people express concern about or prejudice against others because of their religion.

There are two horoscopes of Taiwan. One when the ROC was formed in 1912 in Nanking, Chinaand another in 1950 when ROC shifted to Taipei, Taiwan. Interestingly at the time of formation of ROC, Taiwan was not a part of China.  This horoscope is useful to see as that of a country which ceased to exist.

The dual nation theory is inherent in the Virgo chart where Lagna and 4th house are in dual signs. Mercury the lagna lord is also in dual sign. The brutal killings during the civil war and sufferings of the people are clearly reflected.It is estimated that 18-35 lakh people died during the civil war in China. Saturn the 5th lord is debilitated in the eight house and is in Rahu-Ketu axis.Saturn – Rahu conjunction in the eighth house is a potent evil which stands for rebellion and mutiny. Fourth house shows the land of the country and here twelfth lord has come to the fourth house showing loss of land.

The war was lost in the dasha of Jupiter-Jupiter- Mercury- Saturn-Rahu. Jupiter is the 7th lord of war and its conjunction with Venus clearly shows ideological differences. Maha dasha lord Jupiter has gone to 12th from itself, meaning away from home. The antar dasha lord Mercury is conjunct with 12thlord Sun and aspected by eighth lord Mars shows loss of land. Saturn and Rahu in the eight house clearly shows defeat.

  1. The ROC officially moved the central government to Taipei on 1 March 1950 at 10:00AMat Taipei. The chart was given bySzyuan Hsiao, Taiwanese astrologer who had has been coming to India since 2010 and studied from our guru, Sh. K.N. Rao. This is the chart considered for predicting the events of Taiwan.

The lagna rising is Aries, a movable sign and Lagna lord Mars is retrograding in the 6th house. The nation starts and continues to be in dispute. In D-9 also Mars is in the 6th house. Mars is in close degrees with Ketu. The nation starts with a deception and claims sovereignty over the entire China and declares itself the government in exile instead of accepting defeat.

The wealth of China was taken to Taiwan and that is confirmed by the strong second house. Second lord is Venus and is conjunct with Moon, Jupiter and Mercury all are benefic. The clash for land is clearly visible with connection to sixth and seventh house.

Let us take the key events one by one and seek justification:

  1. The dasha at birth was Jupiter-Rahu-Moon. Jupiter is the 12th lord aspecting the 4th house which is the motherland and Rahu is placed in the 12th house. Moon is the 4th lord. The planetary position clearly shows the establishment of a wealthy estate outside the land. Jupiter is debilitated showing the small size of land.
  2. Almost immediately after declaration of a separate government, CCP attacked Hainan Island on 10 Apr 1950 and got absolute control of the island on 23 Apr 1950. The dasha running at that time was Jupiter-Rahu- Mars. Connection of dasha lords with 12th house of loss and PD lord Mars who is the 8th lord in the 6th house with Ketu gave Taiwan losses and humiliation.Mars gives evil results in the sixth house as it is the significator of war, aggression and attack.
  3. The Maha dasha of Saturn started from April 1950 till 1969. The dasha lord Saturn is the 10th and 11th lord, Taiwan was feted and recognized as representing entire China. The western powers did not recognize mainland China as a country during the Saturn dasha. Saturn in exchange with the fifth lord Sun also shows the poor condition of its public who were ruled with an iron fist. Martial law was imposed from 1949 to 1970 and people in Taiwan were brutally suppressed by ROC till 1970.
  4. The Saturn Maha Dasha was followed by Mercury who has a poor lordship of 3rd and 6th lords. Taiwan rapidly lost its standing in the world though it underwent major economic growth.Taiwan, as the ROC, represented China in the United Nations until 1971, when the People’s Republic of China took the China seat on 25 Oct 1971. The dasha running was Mercury-Ketu – Venus.Mercury is the sixth lord and Ketu is placed in the sixth house.At that timetransit Saturn, Rahu-Ketu and Mars were connected to the 4th house. Fourth house is the seat of power and throne. Taiwan was dethroned this day by China.  The right side chart below shows the transit on 25 Oct 1971.
  • Mercury is the karak for business, its well placed in the 10th house and is conjunct with benefic planets. Taiwan’s economic growth beginning in the mid-1960s was so spectacular that it was called an “economic miracle.”This continued throughout the Mercury dasha who is AMK and a Raj yok karaka in the 10th house.
  • The Ketu dasha started in 1986 and from 1990s Taiwan’s economy slowed, but its growth remained good.Ketu also represents information technology and Taiwan moved to knowledge-based industries.
  • The KMT ruled Taiwan as a single-party state for forty years, until democratic reforms in the 1980s, which led to the first-ever direct presidential election in 1996 in Venus- Sun dasha. Sun in the eleventh house shows gain of public rights and is aspected by Saturn.

Current Situation in Taiwan

  1. The party in power is Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which is a pro-China party. President Tsai Ing-wen won reelection in the election on 11 January 2020. Saturn entered Capricorn, the 10th house on 24th Jan 2020. Our Guruji Sh K N Rao had told us, the ruling party gets changed when Saturn Transits over 10th house.
  2. The current dasha running is Moon – Rahu – Mars. Moon is the 4th lord and is aspected by Jupiter, Venus, Mercury who are benefic planets with malefic lordship of 3-6-12 houses. We have seen that Mars Pratayantar dasha had led to loss of land in 1950. He current pratayantar dasha will cause worries to Taiwan with increased tension with China.
  3. Parallels have been drawn between attack on Ukraine by Russia and potential threat to Taiwan from China. On 4th March, three US senators have proposed a bill that would allow for financial sanctions against China in the event of an attack or invasion of Taiwan. On 10th March US Senate passes bill banning maps showing Taiwan as part of China. USA has systematically started amending all bills and provisions which describe Taiwan as part of China.
  • The antar dasha of Jupiter is staring from 24 March 2022. Jupiter is placed in the seventh house from Moon and is the debilitated 9th and 12th lord. On the day of antar dasha change, transit Saturn will be at degree conjunction with natal Jupiter. Raku – Ketu have also just changed position and have come in the lagna of Taiwan. This Jupiter as 9th lord will protect as well but the antar dasha will bring major upheavals in the Taiwan. (The transit position is shown in below chart)

Transit position on 24th March 2022 at the start of Moon-Jupiter dasha

The Moon – Jupiter dasha will be from 24 Mar 22 to 24 Jun 23. That time Moon is debilitated in the eight house and marak Venus is conjunct with Saturn and Mars aspecting the Lagna, 4th and seventh house.It seems the problems will come but pass since Mars is the lagna lord exalted in transit.However, the precarious position of Taiwan cannot be denied. The malefic in kendra are showing bad time for the nation.

  • Let is look at the Chaitra Shukla Pratipada chart of Taiwanon 1st April 2022. There is severe affliction to Lagna. Lagna rising is Cancer and lagna lord Moon is completely combust by Sun the maraka. Saturn and Mars are in the seventh house of war. Saturn is also aspecting Moon the lagna lord.

There is severe affliction to Taiwan’s land. Venus the 4th lord has gone to the 8th house with Jupiter which is the 6th lord. Fourth house is also in Rahu / Ketu axis.

A sudden veiled attack on Taiwan’s land seems certain from China. As we have seen since last two years, modern warfare has taken a different turn and the attacks now come in different shapes and forms. The China ruled by Mercury, will be making sly, wily, unconventional attacks to hurt Taiwan. Kendra has malefic planets which would bring troubles and difficulties to Taiwan. Their would be increased threats made to Taiwan.

  • The yearly chart of 1stMarch 2022 also shows severe affliction to the fourth house. A natural calamity is also likely to happen in Taiwan this year. Seems more like a earthquakes and volcanic eruption which would happen.All planets are in malefic Nakshatras except Mercury and Ketu.

The 4-10 axis (Cancer-Capricorn) and the 2-8 axis (Taurus-Scorpio) are afflicted showing major upheavals in the world.

Will Taiwan get the protection of USA which was denied to Ukraine? From February 27th 2022, US Navy destroyer is sailing through the Taiwan Strait to show Washington’s commitment to Taiwan and deter China. Chinese warships were spotted in waters off of Taiwan’s Orchid Island for the third time in four days on 2 March 2022. Currently China is very aggressively making war maneuvers near Taiwan but US presence and support acts as a big deterrent.

China’s Chart

Any talk about Taiwan is incomplete without an analysis of China, its estranged brother and the biggest threat.

Mars the 11th lord is debilitated and placed in the 7th house. The eleventh house is the house of desires, greed, aspirations and its lord is placed in the 7th house of war. From here it is aspecting the lagna, Moon and the 10th house and influencing them. China’s horoscope clearly shows its greed and desire for world supremacy. The dasha of Mercury started in Sep 2019. Mercury is at close degree conjunction with Ketu. The current dasha running is Mercury-Ketu. China will start acting with deception and guile and gain from its neighbors is clearly indicated. Mercury -Ketu dasha shows gain for China.

Let us see the Yearly Chart of China on Oct 2021

Seventh house of natal chart is rising in the lagna and muntha is in the seventh house. Seventh house is the house of war. It’s the year of gains from its neighborsas the third lord Mercury is in very weak position. Its making connection with malefic Sun, Mars, Saturn and is in papkartari. Saturn the seventh lord debilitates in the 3rd house in D-9. China will act with decisive power.

The Varshphal chart from 2 Oct 21 shows conjunction of lords of 6-7-8 houses in 7th house. Mercury is retrograde in the 4th house aspected by retrograde Saturn from the seventh house.The classics also talk about earthquakes and natural disasters when Saturn, Mercury, Jupiter are retrograde. The chart indicates calamitiesin China.  Coronavirus has made a resurgence in Shanghai and several other places and many cities remain under extended lockdown causing economic hardships and miseries to its people.

The Chaitra Shukla pratipada 2022 chart of China and Taiwan are the same.

Horoscope of a Fellow Taiwanese Person

The current dasha is Saturn-Moon-Venus. This is a tricky dasha and brings grief. From 3 May, Saturn- Mars is starting which is not a good dasha for this person and afflicts his fourth house. Saturn is currently transiting over his debilitated 4th lord.

Chart of USA

The country Taiwan counts on the most in case of an eventual war with China is USA with whom Taiwan has enjoyed close relationships since last 70 years. Let us see USA’s chart and its present dasha.

USA has Leo lagna rising in the chart and lagna lord Sun is placed in the 11th house with Jupiter, Venus, Mars. Mars is the yog karaka planet for Leo lagna. The connection of 5 planets with 10th house and 7planets with 11th house shows the gain and stature it enjoys.

Saturn the 7th lord of war connects is placed in the second house and America has amassed huge wealth by selling weapons and waging war on other nations. The eight house is aspected by Saturn the 6th and 7th lord and eight lord is conjunct with Mars. The current dasha running is Rahu – Jupiter. Rahu is placed in Cancer in the 12th house, the house of expenditure and is conjunct with Mercury. The loss of wealth of the nation would happen during this maha dasha. Jupiter is combust and conjunct with ninth lord Mars and tenth lord Venus making the dharamkarmadhipati yoga. During this antar dasha America will act honorably though intention will be its own gain.

Its current dasha running is Rahu-Jupiter-Mercury.Mercury pratyantar dasha started from 9th March 2022 and USA has been embroiled in a proxy war since than in Ukraine. The comingPratyantar dasha is of Ketu. Ketu is placed in the sixth house of disputes and D1 and D-9. Ketu behaves like its dispositor Saturn which is also the lord of seventh house which denotes war. Rahu-Jupiter-Ketu starts on 11 July 2022.

Aquarius dasha has started from 4th July 2021 for a period of seven years. Aquarius is the seventh house of the horoscope and Gyatikarak Moon is placed in the seventh house. America will be in conflict during this dasha.

Lets look at the Varshphal chart of USA for 2022.

Lagna rising is Virgo and Mercury is in the tenth house with Sun. Jupiter is the lord of seventh house, the house of wars. Jupiter is placed in own sign. Sixth and eighth lords are in own house. The war being fought in 2021 is proxy war but the situation will change towards direct confrontation as per the varshphal of 2022. USA will be there to safeguard Taiwan’s interest.

Based on the planetary conditions conflict seems to be happening for one of Taiwan’s islands from 3 May 2022 onwards. Taiwan will be able to safeguard itself this year. There would be many challengein Moon-Saturn dasha which starts in July 2023. China would be working with guile and cunning behavior in Mercury Maha dasha.

The current Maha dasha is Moon where Taiwan will be able to safeguard its interest due to good placement of Moon in the fourth house. However, challenges will continue to trouble them. Mars mahadasha starts from April 2029 and from 2028 onwards there would be troubles expected in Taiwan.

Last few years have proven that humankindis bent on destroying itself for their greed for power and money. May lord Krishna bless all with wisdom and foresight and protect the earth.

Prediction on 2nd August 2022

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan amid ‘warnings’ from China on 2 August 9:04 PM. Her visit has aggravated the already fragile relations between China and Taiwan.  Sharing the prediction made on 2nd August 2022 when China was doing live war exercises around Taiwan in their territorial waters.